3 August 1986: Letter to my friend Dan about Sanctions on South Africa

[Following is a portion of a letter to my friend, Dan Morrissey, who was an anti-apartheid activist in Denver in the 1980s.]

Dear Dan,

I’d like to react to one of your comments in your recent, much-appreciated letter.  You said that, “The South African government NEEDS to quickly get organized change underway or truly risk losing it all to violent revolution.” 

In the event of a violent revolution, I’m not so sure that the South African government would “lose it all”, at least not without years of struggle.  South Africa probably has one of the best-armed conventional military forces in the world.  I get the sense that there are many conservative young white men here who are itching for an opportunity to mow down “kaffirs” [a derogatory term for blacks].  Perhaps a revolution based on random terrorism could ultimately bring down the government.  But before it did so, the government would introduce security measures that would make Pinochet in Chile look like a Sunday school teacher.  What many people overseas often fail to recognize is that this government, and more importantly, many of the white South African people (especially the Afrikaners) feel they are fighting for the survival of their country, their way of life, their very civilization.  If all the blacks got organized and agreed on tactics, they could bring the government to its knees within a couple of weeks by simply withholding their labor.  Despite arrogant conservative declarations to the contrary, this country cannot run without black labor.  A general strike could shut down the country without the blacks firing a single shot. 

The reading I get from the local newspapers and from conversations with local people is that the government is digging itself in for a long, hard struggle.  They know that sanctions are coming, so they’ve been stockpiling everything they can in preparation.  They are ready to say, “the rest of the world can go screw itself.”  In fact, Foreign Minister Pik Botha recently said, “Bring on the sanctions.”  Rhodesia held out against sanctions for 14 years and actually improved their local industry in the process.  Why then not South Africa which is much stronger economically and militarily than Rhodesia ever dreamed of being?  Just last night on the TV news there was some official saying they can always find ways of getting what they need, sanctions or not. 

That’s not to say that sanctions wouldn’t hurt South Africa.  But who would be hurt most by sanctions and what types of sanctions would be most effective?  And does the U.S. Congress, British Parliament, etc. know the answers to these questions?  I can see ineffective sanctions being imposed on South Africa in ignorance.  Then “the world” will say, “We’ve done our bit to smash apartheid.  Now let’s get back to watching the latest episode of “Dallas’”.  I was actually naïve enough a few days ago to think that President P.W. Botha and British Foreign Secretary, Geoffrey Howe would work something out.  Shit – How long have I been here?  Four months and I haven’t learned any quicker that that!  It’s great sitting here trying to second-guess history in the making.  It’s not fun realizing how much suffering people of all races in this country are in for – and possibly for the rest of their lives.  I’ve met dozens of really good people here.  There is, for example, a large body of white people who are committed to social justice for South Africans of all races.  They are compassionate, deep-thinking, well-informed…and it makes me sad to realize how powerless they are against the white “ruling class”.  And as a result, many of them have given up.

I’ve heard a number of good arguments against sanctions from people here.  And I’ve also heard a number of naïve arguments coming from overseas.  Perhaps the best argument FOR sanctions came from a liberal white South African friend who said, “I don’t know how effective sanctions are going to be.  But they will cause some white people to suffer.  And until white people start to feel the pinch economically, there will be no real change in this country.”

So, we’ll see.  But I do think that people abroad need to realize that imposition of sanctions is only one step in bringing down apartheid.  It’s going to be a long, hard struggle, and it could get really nasty. 

Actually, it already has.  I heard last night that the MNR guerillas in Mozambique blew up the Beira pipeline yesterday.  That was the only source of oil for Zimbabwe which did not run through South Africa.  This morning I read that South Africa appears to be making plans to ban or limit certain Zimbabwean imports.  What are the Western allies planning to do? Bring in all Zimbabwe’s oil by air?  Are the Western governments and peoples really ready to defend the Southern African Frontline States in an all-out economic war with South Africa?  The South Africans seem to be ready for the coming struggle but does the average Joe-American (or Hans-German, etc.) really give a shit?  I have my doubts. 

Drink deep, good buddy,

Will 

[Following is a July 1986 article from the Chicago Tribune regarding the talks between Botha and Howe referenced in my letter.]